# Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 15:34:27 GMT. 24h change +0.5pp, 24h volume $4.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T15:34:27.711Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.9pp |
| 24h volume | $4.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.5M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $99.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
> 
> Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
> 
> Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
> 
> Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
> 
> Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
> 
> If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
> 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2ec6…dce8` — 83,146.576 shares
- `0xab85…5da3` — 33,056.332 shares
- `0xcb53…e5d9` — 32,199.692 shares
- `0x513c…a948` — 31,804.104 shares
- `0xb223…156b` — 20,990.105 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd5cc…dea4` — 29,844.46 shares
- `0x5c14…cc49` — 29,208.275 shares
- `0x4dfd…6e4a` — 28,270.82 shares
- `0x80a0…5708` — 24,702.654 shares
- `0x014c…820c` — 22,293.39 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T03:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T02:20:04.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 8¢ |
| Net change | -0.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T15:34:27.711Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026.
```

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