# Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 4% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 08:06:09 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $205.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T08:06:09.921Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **4¢** (4%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +1.1pp |
| 24h volume | $205.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $13.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $63.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1e1f…c855` — 304,000.02 shares
- `0x152f…a549` — 198,001.414 shares
- `0x008b…b476` — 182,878.923 shares
- `0xd63c…d2f6` — 150,000.465 shares
- `0xb128…cf58` — 147,532.914 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,148,308.623 shares
- `0x11e7…68b0` — 2,199.24 shares
- `0xd022…76b9` — 1,813.15 shares
- `0xe885…d960` — 1,243.03 shares
- `0x5761…a151` — 1,067.37 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T09:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T08:05:06.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | +1.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 4% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T08:06:09.921Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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