# Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 09:40:39 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $1.1M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-samas-mcgrattan-win-the-2026-dublin-central-by-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-samas-mcgrattan-win-the-2026-dublin-central-by-election
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T09:40:39.132Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.1M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $23.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
> 
> If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb1ca…1705` — 151,539.53 shares
- `0x006c…16ea` — 92,399.24 shares
- `0x4f8b…1d7d` — 12,727.15 shares
- `0x88ec…7ef0` — 3,310 shares
- `0x7c2c…407e` — 3,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 271,810.718 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 40 shares
- `0x1abc…45e7` — 29.94 shares
- `0xa3ad…6866` — 29 shares
- `0xa27a…abce` — 5.005 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T09:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T08:23:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-samas-mcgrattan-win-the-2026-dublin-central-by-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T09:40:39.132Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-samas-mcgrattan-win-the-2026-dublin-central-by-election.
```

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