# Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 17:18:35 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $532.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-san-marino-be-the-jury-winner-in-the-eurovision-2026-grand-final
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-san-marino-be-the-jury-winner-in-the-eurovision-2026-grand-final
**Category:** Entertainment
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T17:18:35.086Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $532.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $571.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $36.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the professional juries in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.
> 
> All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
> 
> If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 31h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe7b1…2024` — 7,290 shares
- `0x1b42…6c03` — 5,880 shares
- `0xb261…7211` — 2,491.626 shares
- `0x5a21…9318` — 1,938.159 shares
- `0x3eda…1c80` — 1,914.269 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 39,319.265 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T18:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T17:18:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | -0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-san-marino-be-the-jury-winner-in-the-eurovision-2026-grand-final` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T17:18:35.086Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-san-marino-be-the-jury-winner-in-the-eurovision-2026-grand-final.
```

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