# Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 29 May 2026 18:30:31 GMT. 24h change +0.3pp, 24h volume $641.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-satoshis-identity-be-revealed-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-satoshis-identity-be-revealed-by-june-30
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-29T18:30:31.374Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.2pp |
| 24h volume | $641.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $665.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $13.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x495e…9a96` — 8,742.26 shares
- `0x2e63…399a` — 1,000 shares
- `0x8a2f…81f0` — 700 shares
- `0x270f…b303` — 409.3 shares
- `0x011f…6771` — 365.28 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2ec0…976b` — 6,594.771 shares
- `0xb708…62fb` — 960 shares
- `0x553a…177f` — 676.874 shares
- `0x019e…af1d` — 600.8 shares
- `0xc6ea…cd6a` — 511.855 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T12:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-29T11:52:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-satoshis-identity-be-revealed-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-29T18:30:31.374Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-satoshis-identity-be-revealed-by-june-30.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*