# Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 19% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 21:47:52 GMT. 24h change -16.5pp, 24h volume $207.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-scottie-scheffler-win-the-2026-pga-championship
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-scottie-scheffler-win-the-2026-pga-championship
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T21:47:52.835Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **19¢** (19%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -16.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $207.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $346.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $169.5K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 18, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
> 
> If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
> 
> In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
> 
> If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved down 16.5pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 50h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf28e…cab2` — 20,922.47 shares
- `0x0344…a65e` — 20,500 shares
- `0xea2b…1fc6` — 19,568.863 shares
- `0xae0f…f647` — 16,267.63 shares
- `0x2348…c246` — 16,059.138 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 74,490.001 shares
- `0xa38a…821d` — 56,498.904 shares
- `0x84db…aeeb` — 31,542.747 shares
- `0x661d…4dc6` — 11,601.993 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 10,420.18 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 92 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T02:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T21:47:18.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -30.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-scottie-scheffler-win-the-2026-pga-championship` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? — 19% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T21:47:52.835Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-scottie-scheffler-win-the-2026-pga-championship.
```

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