# Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 98% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 21:19:44 GMT. 24h change -0.9pp, 24h volume $292.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-shai-gilgeous-alexander-win-the-20252026-nba-mvp
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-shai-gilgeous-alexander-win-the-20252026-nba-mvp
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T21:19:44.850Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **98¢** (98%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.9pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.6pp |
| 24h volume | $292.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $4.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $118.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 10, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x69aa…8847` — 103,761.547 shares
- `0xd1ac…08d5` — 96,382.302 shares
- `0xcf6c…7e66` — 85,328.583 shares
- `0xd529…f0d4` — 61,222.572 shares
- `0xead1…c76a` — 58,829.614 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,005,651.59 shares
- `0x6677…799b` — 84,909.931 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 67,549.308 shares
- `0xebf1…3f2c` — 50,076.096 shares
- `0x1ea0…950a` — 47,375.52 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T21:18:08.000Z |
| Range | 96¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-shai-gilgeous-alexander-win-the-20252026-nba-mvp` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? — 98% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T21:19:44.850Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-shai-gilgeous-alexander-win-the-20252026-nba-mvp.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*