# Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 10:47:01 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $205.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-tarcisio-de-frietas-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-tarcisio-de-frietas-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Oct 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T10:47:01.568Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $205.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $9.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $311.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Oct 4, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
> 
> This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb886…81b3` — 151,046.106 shares
- `0x2320…4869` — 100,504.667 shares
- `0x1be6…336b` — 76,404.851 shares
- `0x3692…fc12` — 69,033.162 shares
- `0x9629…b148` — 35,501.68 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,260,144.891 shares
- `0xdade…8757` — 2,002.002 shares
- `0x4b74…e8d7` — 643.504 shares
- `0x31a4…1ee7` — 425.606 shares
- `0xbfae…be66` — 315.39 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T11:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T10:46:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | -0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-tarcisio-de-frietas-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T10:47:01.568Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-tarcisio-de-frietas-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election.
```

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