# Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:29:12 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $4.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:29:12.212Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.2pp |
| 24h volume | $4.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $16.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $655.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1c14…0869` — 332,158.39 shares
- `0x1e1f…c855` — 314,000 shares
- `0x011f…1122` — 267,402.446 shares
- `0x30e4…5102` — 146,724.881 shares
- `0x9f57…c930` — 131,891.234 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,148,248.623 shares
- `0x4a91…68f8` — 335.354 shares
- `0x13fe…fa4b` — 319.174 shares
- `0x7f0c…ad8e` — 313.828 shares
- `0xe7d2…70a2` — 203.874 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:28:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:29:12.212Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination.
```

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