# Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 06:02:10 GMT. 24h change -3.3pp, 24h volume $289.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-all-india-anna-dravida-munnetra-kazhagam-admk-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-all-india-anna-dravida-munnetra-kazhagam-admk-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Apr 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T06:02:10.743Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | -4.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.3pp |
| Δ 1w | -14.8pp |
| 24h volume | $289.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $25.7K |
| Spread | 0.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 23, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
> 
> If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
> 
> This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
> 
> This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 71%): Probability moved down 3.3pp in 24h with 11.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0224…292a` — 58,261.011 shares
- `0x149e…cd9a` — 49,368.906 shares
- `0xc279…999c` — 24,772.75 shares
- `0x5b6e…f544` — 13,151.259 shares
- `0xb5bf…23ec` — 10,158.863 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 279,898.885 shares
- `0xb092…08fd` — 10,978.99 shares
- `0xfc04…4f75` — 8,823.55 shares
- `0xee57…bf1e` — 2,553.173 shares
- `0xac4a…bf1e` — 1,785.53 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T07:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T06:01:03.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 42¢ |
| Net change | -14.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-all-india-anna-dravida-munnetra-kazhagam-admk-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T06:02:10.743Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-all-india-anna-dravida-munnetra-kazhagam-admk-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*