# Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 06:02:50 GMT. 24h change -47.4pp, 24h volume $295.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-all-india-trinamool-congress-aitc-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-all-india-trinamool-congress-aitc-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Apr 29, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T06:02:50.217Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | -3.8pp |
| Δ 24h | -47.4pp |
| Δ 1w | -55.5pp |
| 24h volume | $295.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $53.3K |
| Spread | 0.70pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 29, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. 
> 
> If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
> 
> This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. 
> 
> This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 47.4pp in 24h with 5.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4c8c…e36f` — 36,712.05 shares
- `0x23d8…0288` — 25,495.609 shares
- `0xa022…77f8` — 16,926.565 shares
- `0x893b…3bd3` — 11,637.874 shares
- `0x3c1e…6226` — 11,463.712 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 252,089.181 shares
- `0x9236…e368` — 30,279.25 shares
- `0x73b9…7aa3` — 27,605.773 shares
- `0xecaa…77a9` — 19,074.608 shares
- `0x50a9…7964` — 10,334.29 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T07:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T06:01:03.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 59¢ |
| Net change | -56.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-all-india-trinamool-congress-aitc-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T06:02:50.217Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-all-india-trinamool-congress-aitc-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election.
```

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