# Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 8% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:05:58 GMT. 24h change -0.8pp, 24h volume $203.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-boston-celtics-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-boston-celtics-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:05:58.036Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **8¢** (8%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.8pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.8pp |
| Δ 1w | -3.4pp |
| 24h volume | $203.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $13.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $196.0K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdb27…c56e` — 450,274.3 shares
- `0xa2b5…4582` — 356,477.551 shares
- `0xa38a…821d` — 160,867.795 shares
- `0xf1ef…8cd6` — 160,823.472 shares
- `0xf49c…9786` — 153,571.281 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 4,160,682.643 shares
- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 177,154.87 shares
- `0x7961…1b1c` — 4,960.129 shares
- `0xd770…652a` — 1,500.68 shares
- `0x2b6d…6753` — 1,100 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:04:08.000Z |
| Range | 8¢ → 15¢ |
| Net change | -3.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-boston-celtics-win-the-2026-nba-finals` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 8% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:05:58.036Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-boston-celtics-win-the-2026-nba-finals.
```

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