# Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 23:54:41 GMT. 24h change -0.6pp, 24h volume $119.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-cleveland-cavaliers-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-cleveland-cavaliers-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T23:54:41.659Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.6pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.6pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.1pp |
| 24h volume | $119.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $11.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $102.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdb27…c56e` — 396,599.87 shares
- `0xf49c…9786` — 279,529.523 shares
- `0xacb2…b989` — 220,000.196 shares
- `0x067f…e041` — 200,000.005 shares
- `0x160d…5295` — 197,623.099 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 4,161,324.753 shares
- `0xf1ef…8cd6` — 12,446.52 shares
- `0xa996…8aac` — 9,000.137 shares
- `0x16b1…968a` — 6,800.045 shares
- `0xaf9e…a250` — 5,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T00:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T23:53:03.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 6¢ |
| Net change | -1.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-cleveland-cavaliers-win-the-2026-nba-finals` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T23:54:41.659Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-cleveland-cavaliers-win-the-2026-nba-finals.
```

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