# Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 78% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:29:03 GMT. 24h change -5.0pp, 24h volume $171.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T03:29:03.099Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **78¢** (78%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -7.0pp |
| 24h volume | $171.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $293.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 3, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
> 
> House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
> 
> If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
> 
> Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x000d…758e` — 103,371.88 shares
- `0xa7ce…6398` — 84,922.05 shares
- `0x6e82…752c` — 60,976.8 shares
- `0xabe7…d623` — 43,295.14 shares
- `0xc213…1388` — 38,828.28 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 671,504.854 shares
- `0x7cc9…6884` — 70,064.694 shares
- `0x011f…1122` — 64,407.739 shares
- `0xc4f8…8a4a` — 45,204.574 shares
- `0x85b8…6b6a` — 35,895.374 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T03:28:04.000Z |
| Range | 77¢ → 85¢ |
| Net change | -7.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — 78% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T03:29:03.099Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections.
```

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