# Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 06:49:46 GMT. 24h change -0.2pp, 24h volume $170.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-cut-rates-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Oct 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T06:49:46.237Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $170.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $266.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $138.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Oct 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
> 
> Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
> 
> The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0f21…3d6e` — 90,000 shares
- `0x3939…8a98` — 37,529.54 shares
- `0xc8ea…e6f3` — 10,050.326 shares
- `0x01cc…d45c` — 5,255.476 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 4,415.641 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xad96…d498` — 91,000 shares
- `0xed10…d2e5` — 43,930.106 shares
- `0x4d14…2366` — 12,916.59 shares
- `0xe639…082a` — 5,523.85 shares
- `0x3a8a…7699` — 4,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T07:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T06:48:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-fed-cut-rates-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T06:49:46.237Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-fed-cut-rates-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair.
```

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