# Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 12:51:02 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $153.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting
**Category:** Macro
**Resolves by:** Jun 17, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T12:51:02.194Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.4pp |
| 24h volume | $153.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $205.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 17, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
> 
> This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
> 
> If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
> 
> The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
> 
> This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe033…40a5` — 143,113.637 shares
- `0x453a…81d2` — 132,317.508 shares
- `0xa5fd…36d1` — 124,262.037 shares
- `0x7b02…4991` — 123,015.24 shares
- `0xd5eb…b9d6` — 109,582.78 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,395,291.974 shares
- `0xbe89…b88c` — 15,052.409 shares
- `0x11df…731f` — 5,648.81 shares
- `0xe403…e5a4` — 5,273.97 shares
- `0x720d…ea38` — 3,131.19 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T13:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T12:50:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 2¢ |
| Net change | -0.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T12:51:02.194Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting.
```

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