# Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 95% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:47:30 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $150.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-21
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** TBD
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:47:30.964Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **95¢** (95%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $150.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $150.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $67.5K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** TBD

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. 
> 
> The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. 
> 
> Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
> 
> A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. 
> 
> Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. 
> 
> Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x53e5…6177` — 22,986.56 shares
- `0x5f17…519e` — 18,396.788 shares
- `0x8df7…36c4` — 5,555.008 shares
- `0x5011…220e` — 4,554.997 shares
- `0x9ca1…13b5` — 4,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x39a6…ebdd` — 14,556.993 shares
- `0x0fce…a98f` — 13,982.464 shares
- `0xac92…9d64` — 8,418.68 shares
- `0xcf06…4799` — 7,937.065 shares
- `0x5b57…0b88` — 5,876.704 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 18 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T04:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T20:46:09.000Z |
| Range | 86¢ → 96¢ |
| Net change | +7.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? — 95% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:47:30.964Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-21.
```

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