# Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 23:58:27 GMT. 24h change -83.3pp, 24h volume $359.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-28
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-28
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T23:58:27.262Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | -77.6pp |
| Δ 24h | -83.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $359.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $503.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $62.4K |
| Spread | 0.90pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 28, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. 
> 
> The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. 
> 
> Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
> 
> A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. 
> 
> Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. 
> 
> Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 83.3pp in 24h with 5.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Expires in 48h. UMA dispute is active.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x50da…2202` — 14,875.756 shares
- `0x7447…a16d` — 12,395.11 shares
- `0xbefe…2d45` — 10,693.582 shares
- `0x5011…220e` — 10,423.989 shares
- `0xdc41…362b` — 8,157.259 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc8ab…6418` — 25,792.333 shares
- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 16,281.07 shares
- `0x12d6…f2a8` — 14,870.818 shares
- `0xc84f…e0c5` — 14,045.1 shares
- `0x2c39…56dc` — 10,192.09 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 74 |
| Window start | 2026-05-22T23:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-25T23:58:04.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 97¢ |
| Net change | -49.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-28` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T23:58:27.262Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-28.
```

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