# Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:05:20 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $231.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:05:20.042Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -2.0pp |
| 24h volume | $231.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $35.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.8M |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
> 
> Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
> 
> Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. 
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa7d1…b824` — 1,737,709.572 shares
- `0x0a85…fe9d` — 1,124,823.632 shares
- `0x11e5…ee4d` — 870,648.863 shares
- `0xbad4…acd7` — 817,997.402 shares
- `0xa253…c48f` — 613,366.714 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfd22…ad91` — 800,000.21 shares
- `0x9ba9…3ce9` — 513,862.95 shares
- `0x9648…6825` — 497,984.976 shares
- `0x05e2…6e12` — 395,471.635 shares
- `0xc658…b784` — 248,990.03 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T21:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T20:51:19.000Z |
| Range | 7¢ → 9¢ |
| Net change | -2.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:05:20.042Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30.
```

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