# Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 19% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:26 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $137.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:26.956Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **19¢** (19%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -4.0pp |
| 24h volume | $137.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $16.4M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $985.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
> 
> Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
> 
> Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. 
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xf55c…0afe` — 447,435.158 shares
- `0x93fb…3e4a` — 239,335.078 shares
- `0xab85…5da3` — 146,270.066 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 124,033.045 shares
- `0x9c0f…7b84` — 80,633.606 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9648…6825` — 350,698.793 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 289,841.668 shares
- `0x8afa…adb6` — 195,226.973 shares
- `0x9ba9…3ce9` — 189,420.375 shares
- `0xc658…b784` — 176,477.6 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:20.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 23¢ |
| Net change | -4.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — 19% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:26.956Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026.
```

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