# Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:27 GMT. 24h change +0.2pp, 24h volume $304.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-los-angeles-lakers-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-los-angeles-lakers-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:27.191Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.2pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $304.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $20.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $580.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2a2c…9bc1` — 636,009.063 shares
- `0x5db5…1a50` — 450,044.486 shares
- `0x43d4…13a2` — 327,570.78 shares
- `0x51fd…4272` — 242,075.148 shares
- `0xead1…c76a` — 173,783.83 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 4,160,682.643 shares
- `0x0767…36b0` — 208,075.842 shares
- `0x20d6…3856` — 181,770.471 shares
- `0xf68a…5b1b` — 84,353.708 shares
- `0xee00…cea1` — 75,564.103 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 5¢ |
| Net change | -1.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-los-angeles-lakers-win-the-2026-nba-finals` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:27.191Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-los-angeles-lakers-win-the-2026-nba-finals.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*