# Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 7% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 20:16:43 GMT. 24h change -7.5pp, 24h volume $71.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-montreal-canadiens-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-montreal-canadiens-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T20:16:43.663Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **7¢** (7%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.3pp |
| Δ 24h | -7.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -3.9pp |
| 24h volume | $71.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $3.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $165.2K |
| Spread | 0.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.
> 

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 67%): Probability moved down 7.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0140…9510` — 97,890.101 shares
- `0xf49c…9786` — 87,522.844 shares
- `0x1925…4654` — 65,746.021 shares
- `0xe7e1…ec43` — 61,572.64 shares
- `0x1f24…05ef` — 49,999.92 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 577,148.351 shares
- `0xb9c7…aade` — 140,497.325 shares
- `0xe3c9…4b9c` — 79,999.964 shares
- `0xaa07…2125` — 69,727.982 shares
- `0x20d6…3856` — 65,025.239 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T21:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-28T20:16:03.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 20¢ |
| Net change | -9.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-montreal-canadiens-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — 7% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T20:16:43.663Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-montreal-canadiens-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup.
```

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