# Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 57% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 04:30:36 GMT. 24h change +2.0pp, 24h volume $132.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T04:30:36.397Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **57¢** (57%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $132.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $10.1M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $236.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xead1…c76a` — 925,361.44 shares
- `0xc2ae…2a5f` — 268,777.471 shares
- `0x6a72…33ee` — 241,141.3 shares
- `0x84db…aeeb` — 175,558.547 shares
- `0xa38a…821d` — 157,862.811 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 4,182,869.466 shares
- `0x20d6…3856` — 129,118.777 shares
- `0xac25…433f` — 29,999.519 shares
- `0xd914…0d9a` — 24,500 shares
- `0xe19a…adcd` — 23,654.203 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T05:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T04:29:06.000Z |
| Range | 52¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | +5.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2026-nba-finals` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 57% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T04:30:36.397Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2026-nba-finals.
```

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