# Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 53% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 01:19:15 GMT. 24h change -11.5pp, 24h volume $171.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-nba-western-conference-finals
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-nba-western-conference-finals
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jun 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T01:19:15.455Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **53¢** (53%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -11.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -19.0pp |
| 24h volume | $171.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $153.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Western Conference Finals based on the rules of the NBA.
> 
> If the 2025-26 NBA Western Conference Finals winner is not announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 84%): Probability moved down 11.5pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc807…c12b` — 167,832.207 shares
- `0x1496…a429` — 51,354.12 shares
- `0x9265…2cc0` — 25,308.048 shares
- `0x72d8…5213` — 22,600.035 shares
- `0x1117…3532` — 22,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 311,742.144 shares
- `0xb3cf…0ebd` — 72,051.224 shares
- `0xc8ec…e8f1` — 50,238.217 shares
- `0x709e…66f5` — 47,644.43 shares
- `0xacb2…b989` — 29,999.991 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-13T03:00:25.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T02:23:04.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 72¢ |
| Net change | -19.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-nba-western-conference-finals` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — 53% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T01:19:15.455Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-nba-western-conference-finals.
```

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