# Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 40% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 17:58:34 GMT. 24h change -14.5pp, 24h volume $157.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-78000-80000-on-may-4
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-78000-80000-on-may-4
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T17:58:34.529Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **40¢** (40%) |
| Δ 1h | +9.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -14.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $157.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $172.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $12.7K |
| Spread | 4.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x3219…2dd9` — 7,456.81 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 4,805.08 shares
- `0x20c6…a0e5` — 4,230 shares
- `0xec8f…8df8` — 4,227.055 shares
- `0x5f65…2a00` — 3,710.382 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 18,826.118 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 6,503.458 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 5,996 shares
- `0x4ee2…46e1` — 4,577.224 shares
- `0x8fe7…4f20` — 3,322 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 167 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T15:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 90¢ |
| Net change | +25.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-78000-80000-on-may-4` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4? — 40% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T17:58:34.529Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-78000-80000-on-may-4.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*