# Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 22% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 04:30:35 GMT. 24h change +1.5pp, 24h volume $133.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2026-nba-finals
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T04:30:35.942Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **22¢** (22%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +6.5pp |
| 24h volume | $133.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $25.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $219.6K |
| Spread | 0.70pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jul 1, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xead1…c76a` — 229,511.74 shares
- `0xa252…dbf4` — 194,755.944 shares
- `0x575a…bba6` — 174,016.988 shares
- `0x84cf…2f63` — 173,803.44 shares
- `0xcfca…8b3a` — 128,004.686 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 4,182,869.466 shares
- `0x8523…1c9f` — 21,386.24 shares
- `0x16b1…968a` — 16,206.009 shares
- `0xafba…e61b` — 13,948.746 shares
- `0x1461…30a1` — 10,529.493 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T04:29:05.000Z |
| Range | 12¢ → 22¢ |
| Net change | +6.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2026-nba-finals` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 22% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T04:30:35.942Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2026-nba-finals.
```

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