# Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 18% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 05:45:25 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $145.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-789-924-249
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-789-924-249
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T05:45:25.533Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **18¢** (18%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.0pp |
| 24h volume | $145.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $26.5M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $781.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xaf23…377f` — 894,254.445 shares
- `0xcd09…da63` — 550,253.928 shares
- `0x6ff0…7760` — 526,877.573 shares
- `0x0b80…657f` — 305,144.461 shares
- `0x9290…f429` — 253,740.356 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa1b2…40ca` — 262,679.17 shares
- `0x5bff…ffbe` — 258,290.712 shares
- `0x8c80…02c3` — 241,520.09 shares
- `0xb9eb…ab05` — 238,095.238 shares
- `0x45b3…35bc` — 203,897.23 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T04:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:17:03.000Z |
| Range | 18¢ → 20¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-789-924-249` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — 18% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T05:45:25.533Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-789-924-249.
```

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