# Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 01:57:43 GMT. 24h change -0.4pp, 24h volume $195.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Oct 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T01:57:43.644Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.8pp |
| 24h volume | $195.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $362.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $28.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Oct 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbecd…fa13` — 8,060 shares
- `0x409f…543a` — 8,000 shares
- `0x5647…de1d` — 6,150.344 shares
- `0x1183…ea30` — 5,000 shares
- `0x2899…0595` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 26,423.89 shares
- `0x4d14…2366` — 10,893.254 shares
- `0xed10…d2e5` — 9,526.54 shares
- `0x9351…9e4d` — 4,813.087 shares
- `0x2e0b…8070` — 4,733.662 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T02:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T01:57:06.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | -0.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T01:57:43.644Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-kevin-warsh-is-confirmed-as-fed-chair.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*