# Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 28% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:04:28 GMT. 24h change +6.0pp, 24h volume $143.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:04:28.045Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **28¢** (28%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +5.0pp |
| 24h volume | $143.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $188.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc80d…fd53` — 103,537.494 shares
- `0xa573…9479` — 31,251.035 shares
- `0x2128…60ee` — 18,353.778 shares
- `0x34f1…4c93` — 15,733.015 shares
- `0x3140…b176` — 11,191.788 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb1ca…1705` — 27,717.07 shares
- `0x29e4…4982` — 23,699.91 shares
- `0xf2b0…b26b` — 23,489.546 shares
- `0x75d1…7a5f` — 17,228.971 shares
- `0xdc4b…dbca` — 15,000.03 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:02:05.000Z |
| Range | 23¢ → 32¢ |
| Net change | +6.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? — 28% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:04:28.045Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026.
```

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