# Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 31% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 02:04:49 GMT. 24h change +1.5pp, 24h volume $219.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T02:04:49.978Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **31¢** (31%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +9.0pp |
| 24h volume | $219.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $28.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $802.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0a85…fe9d` — 851,031.981 shares
- `0x8c80…02c3` — 819,220.768 shares
- `0x950e…f8e5` — 400,000.027 shares
- `0xa9fe…f135` — 292,818.485 shares
- `0x53e5…6177` — 229,769.33 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x88c4…129a` — 954,857.521 shares
- `0x7f9e…3a0e` — 834,234.171 shares
- `0x2974…9c23` — 565,943.778 shares
- `0xbaa2…2c73` — 256,837.505 shares
- `0x9d84…1344` — 225,642.18 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T02:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T01:44:04.000Z |
| Range | 20¢ → 32¢ |
| Net change | +9.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — 31% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T02:04:49.978Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027.
```

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