# Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 28 May 2026 13:49:47 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $2.1M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-venezuela-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-venezuela-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2025
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-28T13:49:47.765Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.7pp |
| 24h volume | $2.1M |
| Lifetime volume | $2.6M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $30.1K |
| Spread | 1.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2025

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
> 
> The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5a7b…e9eb` — 13,382.292 shares
- `0x1ba2…1e0e` — 6,443.23 shares
- `0x124b…fd03` — 2,065.807 shares
- `0x7a18…d1c9` — 2,000 shares
- `0x8197…d06b` — 1,442.783 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb3bd…f543` — 10,537.839 shares
- `0x011f…1122` — 10,521.93 shares
- `0x9507…7b04` — 6,899.991 shares
- `0xc30c…6509` — 3,591.502 shares
- `0xf3f6…6f83` — 1,400 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T14:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-28T13:49:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-venezuela-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-28T13:49:47.765Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-venezuela-by-june-30-2026.
```

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