# Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 03:41:49 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $182.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-there-be-60-or-more-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-30-965
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-60-or-more-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-30-965
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T03:41:49.674Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $182.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $243.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $5.7K |
| Spread | 0.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
> 
> Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
> 
> This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
> 
> This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
> If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd49b…bdf9` — 8,234.461 shares
- `0x0562…9d66` — 4,809.39 shares
- `0xa510…1f80` — 2,433.163 shares
- `0xdc00…af97` — 2,384.59 shares
- `0x85f9…86dd` — 1,947.013 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 25,871.801 shares
- `0xf501…8852` — 2,000 shares
- `0x353c…2af5` — 1,999.999 shares
- `0x880d…adb6` — 1,337.29 shares
- `0xd054…7e38` — 399.995 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T04:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:18:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 0¢ |
| Net change | +0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-there-be-60-or-more-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-30-965` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T03:41:49.674Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-there-be-60-or-more-average-daily-transits-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-30-965.
```

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