# Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 77% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 05:45:53 GMT. 24h change -0.5pp, 24h volume $126.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-thomas-massie-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ky-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-thomas-massie-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ky-04
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T05:45:53.244Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **77¢** (77%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +7.5pp |
| 24h volume | $126.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $477.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $40.5K |
| Spread | 2.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 19, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
> 
> If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
> 
> Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 5%): Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1c72…dfb6` — 36,158.26 shares
- `0x8633…a08d` — 35,449.752 shares
- `0x000d…758e` — 25,378.68 shares
- `0xdc03…804c` — 19,106.325 shares
- `0x202b…971a` — 17,992.204 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xde7b…5f4b` — 132,452.948 shares
- `0xa5ef…2966` — 52,268.404 shares
- `0x4488…e319` — 30,847.604 shares
- `0x23d8…0288` — 21,019.667 shares
- `0xd039…2532` — 7,300.876 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T05:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T04:06:05.000Z |
| Range | 70¢ → 79¢ |
| Net change | +6.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-thomas-massie-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ky-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? — 77% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T05:45:53.244Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-thomas-massie-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ky-04.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*