# Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 04:36:02 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $144.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T04:36:02.985Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.1pp |
| 24h volume | $144.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $4.7M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $847.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
> 
> This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x39d3…963d` — 552,657.413 shares
- `0xcf6a…f9d0` — 204,637.317 shares
- `0x0c0e…434e` — 133,289.684 shares
- `0xe05f…b3e8` — 100,000 shares
- `0x1c72…dfb6` — 98,721.216 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 1,941,454.91 shares
- `0x702a…d666` — 1,428.283 shares
- `0x8d83…3cea` — 1,414.141 shares
- `0x3131…c7ed` — 1,292.929 shares
- `0x38f9…0bff` — 1,212.121 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T04:35:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T04:36:02.985Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election.
```

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