# Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 13:09:46 GMT. 24h change -1.6pp, 24h volume $323.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T13:09:46.936Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.6pp |
| Δ 1w | -3.2pp |
| 24h volume | $323.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $974.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $124.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.
> 
> The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:
> 
> - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.
> - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
> 
> Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
> 
> Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbacd…ab35` — 56,049.873 shares
- `0x9453…1a48` — 37,318.643 shares
- `0xef9f…8924` — 14,863.409 shares
- `0x0b9d…8201` — 7,309.753 shares
- `0xcb01…ead3` — 7,256.951 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd459…13f9` — 45,833.66 shares
- `0x3eae…e2ed` — 25,577.97 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 17,291.298 shares
- `0x0f79…c23e` — 13,202.461 shares
- `0xc3e4…e4be` — 10,636.91 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T14:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T13:09:06.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 8¢ |
| Net change | -3.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T13:09:46.936Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31.
```

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