# Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 4% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 20:39:14 GMT. 24h change +0.4pp, 24h volume $361.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-transit-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-transit-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T20:39:14.966Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **4¢** (4%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.5pp |
| 24h volume | $361.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.2M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $118.5K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
> 
> The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if:
> - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
> - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means.
> 
> Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
> 
> Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xdbf1…86b5` — 61,209.23 shares
- `0xcb01…ead3` — 51,027.298 shares
- `0x5c90…79f4` — 50,342.475 shares
- `0x12ac…8669` — 17,053.77 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 16,888.378 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9351…9e4d` — 273,883.183 shares
- `0x3eae…e2ed` — 47,331.361 shares
- `0x77c3…00c8` — 18,057.42 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 9,955.566 shares
- `0xb1ca…1705` — 8,790.625 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T21:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T20:32:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 4¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-agree-to-iranian-transit-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? — 4% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T20:39:14.966Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-agree-to-iranian-transit-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31.
```

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