# Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 03:57:26 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $286.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T03:57:26.771Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $286.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $286.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $382.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping around May 14-15, 2026.
> 
> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping kiss at any point during this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
> 
> Video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. 
> 
> A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the lips of one individual touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from either party will qualify.
> 
> The summit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. The summit ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory.
> 
> This market may resolve once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the summit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 50%): Expires in 44h. No explicit resolution source listed.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5109…5e9c` — 76,954.8 shares
- `0xbdc3…c0ea` — 30,000 shares
- `0xf0d5…c665` — 20,808.231 shares
- `0xf370…b561` — 11,862.61 shares
- `0xbd04…fbb0` — 11,511 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xad96…d498` — 124,244.036 shares
- `0xed10…d2e5` — 20,000 shares
- `0xec59…bb35` — 14,231.46 shares
- `0x3cb5…ed22` — 8,650 shares
- `0x21d0…ce91` — 6,667.51 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 12 |
| Window start | 2026-05-12T17:00:34.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T03:57:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T03:57:26.771Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-and-xi-kiss-at-their-summit.
```

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