# Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 39% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 24 May 2026 18:42:14 GMT. 24h change +32.1pp, 24h volume $24.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-announce-a-tariff-reduction-on-china
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-announce-a-tariff-reduction-on-china
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-24T18:42:14.483Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **39¢** (39%) |
| Δ 1h | -3.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +32.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -4.5pp |
| 24h volume | $24.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $95.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $19.7K |
| Spread | 2.80pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution.
> 
> Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
> 
> Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify.
> 
> Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect.
> 
> This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xb698…976a` — 110,422.891 shares
- `0x9db0…a2a7` — 20,748.212 shares
- `0x2843…0ac5` — 16,625.093 shares
- `0x3e26…3edf` — 16,457.544 shares
- `0xac4a…ef52` — 14,314.138 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd1c7…1d2b` — 151,699.95 shares
- `0x02e7…59e5` — 72,934.085 shares
- `0xad96…d498` — 46,233.523 shares
- `0x6606…1338` — 18,474.747 shares
- `0x1295…5cfd` — 11,796.804 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T07:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T06:28:06.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 51¢ |
| Net change | +1.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-announce-a-tariff-reduction-on-china` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? — 39% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-24T18:42:14.483Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-announce-a-tariff-reduction-on-china.
```

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