# Will Trump Leave China after May 18?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 10:55:36 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $1.3M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-leave-china-after-may-18
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-leave-china-after-may-18
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T10:55:36.139Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.3M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $278.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 20, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
> 
> A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
> 
> If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
> 
> If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xa047…c7a2` — 19,174.29 shares
- `0x2d56…7a8a` — 4,000 shares
- `0xd49b…bdf9` — 3,662.878 shares
- `0x5a21…9318` — 3,578.828 shares
- `0xcfcf…11dd` — 3,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfaf9…f4c4` — 30,000 shares
- `0xa5ef…2966` — 11,868.886 shares
- `0x57b0…76f4` — 2,000 shares
- `0x1ee9…197f` — 100.045 shares
- `0x5207…686b` — 71.82 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 87 |
| Window start | 2026-05-11T21:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T10:49:08.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 26¢ |
| Net change | -25.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-leave-china-after-may-18` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump Leave China after May 18? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T10:55:36.139Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-leave-china-after-may-18.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*