# Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 12% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 17:51:43 GMT. 24h change +9.0pp, 24h volume $440.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-may-31
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-may-31
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T17:51:43.843Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **12¢** (12%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +9.0pp |
| Δ 1w | -7.0pp |
| 24h volume | $440.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $728.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $35.9K |
| Spread | 3.80pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
> 
> This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify.
> 
> Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
> 
> Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved up 9.0pp in 24h with 12.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x682e…70bd` — 25,953.748 shares
- `0x2525…b919` — 22,030.66 shares
- `0x80a0…5708` — 20,325.569 shares
- `0x0d05…6a81` — 13,188.457 shares
- `0x10e1…aa05` — 7,836.483 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2d4b…ca7a` — 22,347.618 shares
- `0xaf23…aa95` — 13,177.793 shares
- `0x62cf…5826` — 7,500.757 shares
- `0x5011…220e` — 7,465.491 shares
- `0xd426…334a` — 6,815.821 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T18:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T17:49:19.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 72¢ |
| Net change | -7.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-may-31` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? — 12% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T17:51:43.843Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-may-31.
```

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