# Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 58% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 25 May 2026 03:43:19 GMT. 24h change +22.5pp, 24h volume $57.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-say-250-or-250th-during-events-in-rockland-county
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-say-250-or-250th-during-events-in-rockland-county
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-25T03:43:19.418Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **58¢** (58%) |
| Δ 1h | +4.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +22.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $57.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $180.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $7.9K |
| Spread | 4.00pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks in Rockland County at 3PM ET on May 22, 2026 (https://www.lohud.com/story/news/2026/05/20/trumps-rockland-county-visit-what-to-know/90173651007/). 
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during remarks in Rockland County scheduled for May 22, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.
> 
> Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
> 
> Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
> 
> If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
> 
> This market is explicitly about remarks in Rockland County at 3PM ET on May 22, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
> 
> AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
> 
> If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". 
> 
> The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x98a7…df9e` — 50,000 shares
- `0xda73…4d41` — 23,759.41 shares
- `0xdf17…97d1` — 10,581.792 shares
- `0x5188…c804` — 10,332.92 shares
- `0xbd04…fbb0` — 9,748.96 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9507…7b04` — 49,999.996 shares
- `0xd1c7…1d2b` — 32,011.72 shares
- `0x44c1…ebc1` — 26,556.7 shares
- `0xcab7…9d0a` — 10,784.279 shares
- `0x631c…450f` — 10,000.17 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 98 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T19:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-24T19:54:03.000Z |
| Range | 24¢ → 81¢ |
| Net change | +9.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-say-250-or-250th-during-events-in-rockland-county` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? — 58% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-25T03:43:19.418Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-say-250-or-250th-during-events-in-rockland-county.
```

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