# Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 22:28:44 GMT. 24h change +78.0pp, 24h volume $1.0M.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-say-dumbocrat-during-bret-baier-interview
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-say-dumbocrat-during-bret-baier-interview
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T22:28:44.896Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +78.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $1.0M |
| Lifetime volume | $1.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $1.2M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> An interview of Donald Trump with Bret Baier is scheduled to air on May 15, 2026, at 7 PM ET. ((https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-channel-conduct-first-172700257.html). 
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.
> 
> Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
> 
> Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
> 
> If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
> 
> This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks during the interview by Bret Baier scheduled for May 15, 2026. (See: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-channel-conduct-first-172700257.html). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
> 
> AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
> 
> If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". 
> 
> The resolution source will be official audio/video of the event.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x2785…70ae` — 782,703.02 shares
- `0x73e3…3239` — 26,318.04 shares
- `0x134a…9e42` — 20,661.458 shares
- `0xf0d5…c665` — 7,129.82 shares
- `0x955c…990f` — 4,034.215 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe555…a91d` — 251,325.49 shares
- `0x2d5b…5d41` — 158,894.33 shares
- `0x3a23…0f72` — 140,331.489 shares
- `0xf6d2…7048` — 100,914.66 shares
- `0x9a3f…914a` — 100,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 49 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T22:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T22:28:06.000Z |
| Range | 19¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +58.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-say-dumbocrat-during-bret-baier-interview` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T22:28:44.896Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-say-dumbocrat-during-bret-baier-interview.
```

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