# Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 33% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 01:22:03 GMT. 24h change -46.5pp, 24h volume $216.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-say-iran-during-events-with-xi-jinping
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-say-iran-during-events-with-xi-jinping
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T01:22:03.619Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **33¢** (33%) |
| Δ 1h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -46.5pp |
| Δ 1w | -43.0pp |
| 24h volume | $216.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $281.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $11.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). 
> 
> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
> 
> Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
> 
> Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
> 
> If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
> 
> AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
> 
> This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.
> 
> If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0eaa…c521` — 33,409.783 shares
- `0x777d…5143` — 20,011.127 shares
- `0xb2c6…3654` — 7,999.985 shares
- `0x9e92…6929` — 6,658.882 shares
- `0xac9b…d4c5` — 6,631.65 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xecaa…77a9` — 20,141.856 shares
- `0xd426…334a` — 14,845.893 shares
- `0x2c39…56dc` — 12,915.815 shares
- `0x3c59…1766` — 11,530.538 shares
- `0x1c14…0869` — 8,845.98 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T02:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T01:21:03.000Z |
| Range | 32¢ → 88¢ |
| Net change | -42.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-say-iran-during-events-with-xi-jinping` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? — 33% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T01:22:03.619Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-say-iran-during-events-with-xi-jinping.
```

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