# Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 02 May 2026 21:08:27 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $110.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-talk-to-ursula-von-der-leyen-in-april
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-talk-to-ursula-von-der-leyen-in-april
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-02T21:08:27.063Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +87.9pp |
| 24h volume | $110.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $1.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $3.8M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `disputed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Apr 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `disputed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
> 
> A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
> 
> The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7804…7025` — 300,000 shares
- `0x1295…5cfd` — 156,615.5 shares
- `0x8750…e96b` — 68,196.62 shares
- `0xc8ab…6418` — 36,978.368 shares
- `0x74b4…6bea` — 8,384.58 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb413…1cb7` — 150,000 shares
- `0x98a7…df9e` — 99,999.986 shares
- `0x702b…6db1` — 61,450 shares
- `0x69cc…2e44` — 38,670.575 shares
- `0x5d05…6320` — 27,850 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-25T22:00:19.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-02T21:08:04.000Z |
| Range | 12¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +88.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-talk-to-ursula-von-der-leyen-in-april` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-02T21:08:27.063Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-talk-to-ursula-von-der-leyen-in-april.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*