# Will Trump visit China by May 31?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 94% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 08:48:54 GMT. 24h change +4.0pp, 24h volume $105.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-visit-china-by-may-31-344
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-visit-china-by-may-31-344
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Mar 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T08:48:54.534Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **94¢** (94%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +25.0pp |
| 24h volume | $105.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $2.3M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $86.1K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Mar 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x1260…07ce` — 37,443.658 shares
- `0x6ae0…7483` — 36,004.269 shares
- `0x162f…798d` — 30,219.459 shares
- `0x5060…a780` — 24,559.315 shares
- `0x6718…a38e` — 19,423.83 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa3d3…d424` — 61,320.712 shares
- `0xc5b4…61f9` — 40,733.603 shares
- `0xe5f0…dc1d` — 37,291.539 shares
- `0x6139…6b7a` — 29,999.981 shares
- `0xbacd…ab35` — 22,331.237 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T09:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T08:48:07.000Z |
| Range | 69¢ → 95¢ |
| Net change | +25.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-trump-visit-china-by-may-31-344` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Trump visit China by May 31? — 94% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T08:48:54.534Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-trump-visit-china-by-may-31-344.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*