# Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 10:03:13 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $270.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026
**Category:** Geopolitics
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T10:03:13.181Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.3pp |
| 24h volume | $270.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $344.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $16.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
> 
> Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. 
> 
> Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
> 
> If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
> 
> Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
> 

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x79b5…c1f9` — 10,008.18 shares
- `0xa838…15cb` — 1,226.456 shares
- `0x7732…b5f2` — 1,058.095 shares
- `0x0517…955d` — 1,024.444 shares
- `0x4222…aa99` — 810.739 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9507…7b04` — 2,641.89 shares
- `0x9901…6046` — 2,512.096 shares
- `0x3a8a…7699` — 2,500 shares
- `0x0b65…293e` — 1,567.63 shares
- `0x8f0b…8be2` — 1,143.287 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T11:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T10:02:07.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 2¢ |
| Net change | -0.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T10:03:13.181Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026.
```

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