# Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? > Polymarket binary prediction market. 11% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 16:25:49 GMT. 24h change -1.3pp, 24h volume $135.6K. **Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-wti-reach-140-in-may-2026-916 **Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-wti-reach-140-in-may-2026-916 **Category:** Macro **Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026 **Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T16:25:49.898Z ## Live snapshot | Metric | Value | |---|---| | YES probability | **11¢** (11%) | | Δ 1h | -0.1pp | | Δ 24h | -1.3pp | | Δ 1w | -6.8pp | | 24h volume | $135.6K | | Lifetime volume | $399.8K | | Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $113.3K | | Spread | 0.20pp | ## Resolution **Resolves by:** Jun 1, 2026 **Source:** https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI ### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket) > This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". > > Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. > > If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". > > Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. > > Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). > > The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. > > For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. > > If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. > > In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. > > The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. ## Top holders **Top YES holders** - `0x7d0b…840a` — 44,940.116 shares - `0xafc0…5087` — 29,691.777 shares - `0x1a87…4e00` — 24,999.952 shares - `0xb1fa…1a14` — 16,009.739 shares - `0x576f…819a` — 13,845.979 shares **Top NO holders** - `0xa6a0…4469` — 27,558.034 shares - `0xc8ab…6418` — 20,204.382 shares - `0x9981…dec4` — 18,413.34 shares - `0x4060…3ec3` — 18,182.85 shares - `0xb6c8…b9e6` — 18,139.185 shares ## 7-day price-history summary | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Sample count | 168 | | Window start | 2026-04-26T17:00:06.000Z | | Window end | 2026-05-03T16:25:07.000Z | | Range | 6¢ → 48¢ | | Net change | -6.8pp | Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-wti-reach-140-in-may-2026-916` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data. ## Cite this ``` Orrery. "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? — 11% on Polymarket." Retrieved 2026-05-03T16:25:49.898Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-wti-reach-140-in-may-2026-916. ``` --- *Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See .*