# Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 11:11:35 GMT. 24h change +0.1pp, 24h volume $161.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-yariv-levin-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-yariv-levin-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T11:11:35.582Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -0.7pp |
| 24h volume | $161.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $393.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $30.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Dec 31, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 
> 
> This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
> 
> To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
> 
> If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
> 
> The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x41d2…d9ad` — 19,948.909 shares
- `0xd600…b66e` — 19,338.736 shares
- `0xc3bf…e70f` — 10,110.956 shares
- `0x28d7…c398` — 4,299.72 shares
- `0x0441…3ef8` — 3,770.13 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 79,842.331 shares
- `0xd8d4…3040` — 1,158 shares
- `0x166f…ce5b` — 20.02 shares
- `0xb48a…3951` — 17.074 shares
- `0xb89d…a7d7` — 6.078 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T12:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T11:11:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | -0.7pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-yariv-levin-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T11:11:35.582Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-yariv-levin-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel.
```

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