# Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 17 May 2026 05:43:17 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $138.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/will-zohran-mamdani-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-445
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/will-zohran-mamdani-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-445
**Category:** Politics
**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-17T05:43:17.377Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $138.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $36.0M |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $2.2M |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Nov 7, 2028

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
> 
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
> 
> Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 10%): Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5d18…4972` — 1,601,948.562 shares
- `0xc21e…0215` — 271,379.418 shares
- `0x2663…ed1f` — 185,521.267 shares
- `0xdf53…3146` — 103,859.77 shares
- `0xee67…ef38` — 88,448.884 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa5ef…2966` — 2,766,937.237 shares
- `0xe403…e5a4` — 171,743.37 shares
- `0x2a58…9b9c` — 1,617.56 shares
- `0x4e25…d7a7` — 1,359.98 shares
- `0x2c32…c1f9` — 572.72 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-10T06:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-17T05:43:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 1¢ |
| Net change | +0.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=will-zohran-mamdani-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-445` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-17T05:43:17.377Z from https://orrery.me/markets/will-zohran-mamdani-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-445.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*