# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 20:29:16 GMT. 24h change +26.5pp, 24h volume $396.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/wta-annli-zhang-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/wta-annli-zhang-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T20:29:16.354Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +24.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +26.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $396.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $396.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $509.1K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.wtatennis.com/scores

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Ann Li and Shuai Zhang in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ann Li' if Ann Li advances against Shuai Zhang.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Shuai Zhang' if Shuai Zhang advances against Ann Li.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 80%): Probability moved up 26.5pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x64c5…d255` — 24,180 shares
- `0xa72a…93fd` — 21,764.01 shares
- `0x0ebb…cb1a` — 15,082.907 shares
- `0xbbf9…f888` — 13,513.514 shares
- `0x7cb2…f12f` — 6,631.657 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xfe78…0319` — 43,118.868 shares
- `0x2a67…d370` — 12,054.873 shares
- `0x4d17…4e1e` — 9,999.987 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 7,675.401 shares
- `0xd3df…82fa` — 7,623.641 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 26 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T17:26:18.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 78¢ |
| Net change | -19.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=wta-annli-zhang-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T20:29:16.354Z from https://orrery.me/markets/wta-annli-zhang-2026-05-05.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*